A new beginning

Second Life has failed. More specifically, Linden Lab's promise of a virtual world, which will improve the human condition, has turned out to be false. And, astonishingly, it all boils down to the old Immersionism vs Augmentationism debate. Who would have thought it?

There are two radically different groups of Second Life users. The first are the immersionists - escapists in disguise, who have come to Second Life to create a new life for themselves. They are lured here by the promise of a brave new world, a blank canvas on which they are free to draw their fantasies. From perfect bodies to Gor slave traders, from male to female (and sometimes, but rarely, from female to male), from autocracies to egalitarian communities, from translators to land barons - all are seeking something that is not available to them in the real world.

The other group are the augmentationists - drawn to Second Life by a promise of a world without boundaries, where geographical distance is meaningless and which can improve their existing lives - either personal, professional or both.

There is nothing wrong with either point of view - however, it is important to realize the difference in their expectations. The immersionists want, above all, a stable foundation upon which they can express their fantasies and desires. Not just platform stability - if you have to postpone your role playing for an hour because of disabled logins, that's annoying, but it is not the end of the world. No, they desire stability on the higher levels - a stable economy, laws, prices.

The augmentationists, on the other hand, value platform stability the most. They try to use Second Life as an aspect of their real life; they need a stable set of features with a roadmap of changes to follow, so they can migrate some of their activities from RL to SL. The in-world economy is less important to them, and so are the legislative changes.

Unfortunately, Linden Lab has miserably failed both these groups. Price and policy juggling, coupled with an inherent inability to feel and connect with their user base, have hurt the immersionists. A year of standing still, platform stability-wise and feature-set wise, have hurt the augmentationists. And all this combined has resulted in a failure to attract new users, which hurts both groups equally. How many new and interesting people did you meet in 2007 and how many in 2008?

I still believe that virtual worlds are a valuable tool for all - I just don't think that Second Life will be it. It will not be the Google of virtual worlds - I doubt it will even be Altavista. Perhaps Lycos or Webcrawler, to be mentioned in geeky old-skool debates in 2015.

So, what do we do while we wait for the *real* virtual word platform, which will be able to foster mass adoption?

I don't know about you - but I'm flying internet spaceships :)

EVE Online is a vast online game, spanning thousands of star systems and inhabited by a few hundred thousand players. It has an extremely complex system of production and trade - so much so that they employ an economist with a Ph.D. to oversee and tweak it (check out the quarterly economic report); it fosters communities in the form of corporations and alliances that vie for territory and resources; the ship mechanics are mind boggling, to say the least, and you can never be truly safe.

I've played EVE Online since late July; in this time, I have seen one major new release and several patches which significantly improved user experience. One such example is Jita - a random system which has become the major trading hub, solely due to group dynamics. There are always around a thousand players in system and it was becomming increasingly lagged. CCP, the creators of EVE Online, have adapted to it by developing a 64-bit server code and deploying an extra-powerful server to power the node - and lag actualy disappeared.

Another example is a recent exploit which enabled some corporations to basically mint money (*cough* copybot *cough*). When CCP heard of it, they promptly responded, removed the assets and banned dozens of user accounts.

EVE Online even has a user government of sorts - the Council of Stellar Management, elected twice a year by the EVE Online players, which periodically meet with CCP and represent the wishes and needs of the players.

Could this be any further from Linden Lab?

I am not leaving Second Life - I'll still be here, waiting with you for the real virtual world which will improve the human condition and where, I don't doubt, most of SL users will migrate in a heartbeat; but I'll spend more of my time elsewhere, where nobody knows my name and nameless strangers wait to blow me up - but where the creators, at least, care about my user experience.

Expect some stories about my EVE Online adventures soon :) and if you'd like to try it, IM me your email for a 21 day hassle-free invite code.

On the nature of protests

Crisis endures * what's in a title? * IYan's first protest * high school sucks * lessons learned * a call to action and fun

The Second Life blogosphere is still in turmoil after the TM/R fiasco (we really need a cool name for this), only slightly dampened by the quality of service of Second Life of late. The promised clarification on the part of Linden Lab arrived - two days late and none-too-clarifying. Besides the nearing SL bloggers' strike, we now have a petition to Linden Lab, urging them to adopt a more lenient trademark policy. The petition is titled "Petition to Linden Lab on the Policy of Trademark Enforcement" - quite a mouthful. Unfortunately, my suggestion of "Please stop being foolish" did not pass muster.

About that policy? (source)

Given past community performance by LL, it's a safe bet that nothing will change and some kind of in-world protests will ensue - and that makes me very happy. Not because I think that the massed avatars will force Linden Lab to see the light, but because I love protests.

Save our blogs!

I was part of the "experimental generation" when growing up. Every year, they would change the school system a bit. First, there was the "Hey, let's abolish the general purpose high schools!" idea which forced me to enroll in something called the "high school for nature sciences". Then they canceled high school graduation exam, fiddled with the number of semesters, decided that general purpose high schools were not such a bad idea after all, and, in the end, decided to bring back the graduation exam.

"OK, now everybody do a flip!"

Needless to say, everybody was kinda fed up with constant irritation, even given the cheerful and cooperating demeanor of high school kids. The graduation exam was the straw that broke the camel's back - when forced with a distinct possibility of having to study extra hard for a month, two generations of high schoolers rebelled. We left the schools and marched in the streets, wowing not to return until the exam was canceled.

The strike lasted for two weeks. On the first couple of days, we closed the traffic in the city center, drunk more than high schoolers should, and had a great time. After that, the novelty wore off and the police were more vigilant, so we did without public displays and just skipped school - the more cautious of us returning to school for an hour every day for supplemental classes in math, as the yearly math test was approaching. In two weeks' time, some kind of compromise was reached, the exam lightened a bit, and we came back to school. In the end, a year and a half later, I still had to pass the graduation exam - just under a different name.

Although I did not realize it then, the lessons of the strike stayed with me. Can you bring considerable change to the environment? No. But you can have great fun trying to bring change about. There is nothing more powerful than joining a band of Davids, waving their puny fists at Goliath. And, as you know - every so often, David actually wins.

"Oh, Goliath?"

See you at the protest!

Bonus: IYan in protesting gear

Avatar uprising (and it's not even October)

Water cooler discussions * topics revisited * latest crisis * out-of-hand dismissal * communist parallel * obscured blessings * ah, but-

If you are ever in any doubt that Second Life users (or, at least, the vocal ones) are a community, check out the topics of conversation. There are minor topics, discussed by individual posters and commenters; and then there are the big topics - the ones where you find yourself discussing them in-world, on blogs and in blog comments. A common perception of reality is, of course, one of the characteristics of a community. But even more fascinating is the persistence and pervasiveness of topics and conversations; it's not unusual to start a conversation with an avatar in-world, continue it over several blog posts and comments and end it on twitter - all the while interacting and including others in conversation.

The topics of late have ranged from banking in virtual worlds to meaning and methods of using virtual worlds. I don't know why "The end is nigh!" debates are always followed by the more philosophical ones, but it's nice in an "After every rain comes the sun" kinda way.

So, after the extremely philosophical "what is the meaning of IS" debates of late have subsided, I was waiting for the bombshell to drop - and it has. Linden Lab has decided to tighten the TM reigns on the old SL mare and prod us in a new direction, and the SLogosphere exploded.

First, quickly on the topic of trademarks: Can LL tighten TM control? Yes. Will it in fact have any impact on most bloggers? No. Is it a sign of an upcoming IPO? Don't be silly - LL would be crazy to IPO with stagnating growth, in a recession-bound market, and with a missing/unproved CEO. Is it yet another perhaps needed, but extremely stupidly implemented decision which seemingly affects the whole Second Life community? Absolutely - but I have come to expect nothing less of Linden Lab. Should we panic? Well, if you insist.

But back to the community. I grew up in a communist country and once heard this anecdote by one of the commie leaders: he was meeting with some Italian representatives who commented that our delegation (and, indeed, the constituent nations) bickered all the time. "Ah, yes, that is very true," answered our leader, "but just try attacking us - we'll close like a fist and repel you!". "But," wondered the Italian delegate, "what will you do if nobody attacks you?"

As the former country is now fragmented into seven new countries (I believe, and at last count; but it's so hard to keep track), the Italian guy was right. And - doesn't the same hold for the Second Life community? When there are no perceived external dangers, we're at each other's throat over silly things like who is more "immersed" in the environment and whose prim hair looks better. But, when a threat appears, we form tight ranks and start waving the pitchforks.

With that in mind, Linden Lab's heavy handed policy changes might be seen as a blessing in disguise. A chance blessing, to be sure - I have yet to be impressed with Linden Lab's community handling and no one can pretend that well - but a blessing none the less.

But, as our example proved, this can only work for so long. Sooner or later, you have to move to better community strategies - and I hope Linden Lab find them soon. If only to stop the drama..

The unbearable lightness of banning: Linden Lab's lack of strategy

The demise of banking * analysis of Linden VPs * Linden Lab's problem solving algorithm explained * a friendly advice to Phillip * it's a brave old world * patronizing advice

By now, you are sure to know about the Linden Lab's ban on in-world banking. At a glance, it seems like a reasonable decision: the banking activity in Second Life was often suspicious, and it has had its fair share of scandals. But what might it mean for the long-term future?

A rush on banks on Tuesday (source)

On Monday, I attended the Metanomics event featuring Robin Linden. The Metanomics events are often boring, especially the ones featuring Linden VP's. Last year, we had Ginsu Linden, whose answer to the questions ranging from in-world monetary policy to the laws of supply and demand was the mantra "Second Life is a product". This one was no exception, except that Robin's mantra reply to the questions ranging from land zoning to JIRA and reputation systems was "It's very hard, so we are focusing our efforts elsewhere", peppered with an occasional "Well, if the community implements something, we might use it".

I HAS A PRODUCT

(hint to surviving Metanomics events without falling asleep: watch it at Muse Isle, where the atmosphere is fun and joking constant)

Boring as Linden VPs may be, they do provide an insight into the workings of Linden Lab and the future of Second Life. Briefly stated, their problem-solving algorithm is:

1. A problem arises in Second Life
2. Problem grows worse; L$ are lost, blog posts on the topic abound, possible solutions are put forward
3. The JIRA is mobbed
4. Time passes
5. Some more time passes
   
6. Linden Lab implements a quick fix by either:
1. banning the activity in question
2. extending RL governance to the SL activity in question

While this may seem to work (hey, gambling is not a problem anymore, right?), it proves that Linden Lab has no long-term strategy for Second Life. This is a bit shocking: all Phillip's speeches and LL's mission ('To advance the human condition') sure make it seem like they know where Second Life is headed. There seems to be a disconnect at the middle management layer - you have visionaries and enthusiasts on the top and bottom, but the VP layer is made out of old-school businessmen. We all remember how it went when Apple tried a Coca-cola executive, so my advice to Phillip would be "Watch your back!".

Oh, Phillip?

The essential premise of Second Life and its biggest competitive advantage is freedom - freedom of creation, freedom of communication, freedom of interaction. Of course there must be some limits to freedom; but instead of giving us the mechanisms to evolve these limits, Linden Lab simply stamps the real-world solution on the troubled area. Problem with the banks in Second Life because there is no regulatory body with authority and tools to regulate banking? No problem - let's allow only real-world banks which conform to real-world restrictions. Bit by bit, they are making Second Life a carbon copy of First Life - just with wings and furry avatars.

An aside: Linden Lab states that Linden dollars are "fictional currency". So why must you have a real currency bank certificate to open a bank in Second Life? Wouldn't a certificate of fictionality be more appropriate? I fear that LL has opened a Pandora's box with this decision - it will be interesting to see how the future develops.

Am I concerned about my Second Life? Yes and no. I love Second Life, but what exactly do I love about it? The crashing viewer and an abundance of Ruths? No - I love the way it enables me to communicate with others, by creation or by interaction. Exactly who provides that service is unimportant in the long term. Once something has been done, it's easy for another to copy and improve it. If Second Life fails, I have no doubts that a Third Life will await me down the road.

Ruth army (source)

I offer no concrete suggestions to Linden Lab; other posters have done that better than I could have. I do have one advice for Robin Linden, the "VP for community", though: make deciding about the "hard" issues your priority. They (and not viewer stability, GRID architecture or banking regulation) are key to Linden Lab's and Second Life's future.

Yet another turn of the year blog post

Introduction - Second Life misrepresented - hurdles jumped and obstacles overcome - wildly inaccurate predictions - we few, we lucky few - holiday cheer.

It's customary to commemorate the switching-of-arbitrary-number-thing with highlights of the year n and predictions for the year n+1. Well, far be it from me to separate from the herd, so here we go!

Baaaaa!

As 90% of the other blogs are filled with complex technical analysis of the year behind us, I'll take another route and try to evaluate the year from a more personal perspective. For me, 2007 was the year when I shed my online 3D environment prejudices and embraced virtual worlds wholeheartedly.

Embracing the virtual world

Why was I skeptical? For one, I hate online multiplayer games. The hassle of having to play the game and deal with complex relationships at the same time never attracted me. When I first heard of virtual worlds through the mainstream media, this was the impression I got. Of course, having read Snow crash (and loving it) years ago, I was patiently waiting for the Metaverse. I just didn't think we were there yet - and none of the media reports made it seem so.

The books that started it all

The second reason was the name. "Second Life". Admit it: the name is too good! As I have been quite happy with my first life, the idea of a replacement life in a cloud of pixels was off putting. I understand why an immersionist would be immediately attracted to the name, but for myself, "Additional Life" or "Life Enhancement" would be more appropriate and alluring.

All this combined to make it hard for me to jump the hurdle; but, fortunately, with the assistance of someone who used to jump hurdles in competitions, I finally managed it. I came, I saw, I spent Lindens, I crashed, I loved it!

So, now that I am here, what are my Second Life predictions for 2008?

1. User retention will stay the same

Second Life's 10% user retention is not due to system crashes or user interface. It's due to inherent complexity of the virtual environment and communication. A large group of people can't find the Post Office based on simple instructions and can't write a coherent email to save their lives. Do you really expect them to successfully navigate and communicate in virtual worlds?

2. Prices of virtual goods will fall

The virtual nature of SL merchandise means that there are no costs associated with production of items. Once the development/building costs are recouped and the competition is closing, it's very easy for the creators to start lowering price and continue to do so until the price reaches zero. This is the reason for Anshe's much-maligned 10 L$ goods. She's not evil; she just understands the virtual economy. The sooner SL creators understand the laws of the virtual world, the better. The solution is not to band together or hurl penises, but to keep creating; the time of resting on laurels is even shorter in virtual world than in the flat world.

Idea: instead of having fixed prices for goods, why not implement an algorithm that would automatically lower costs towards a preset minimum based on aggregate demand? Every store (or every creator) could have a sales bot that would connect to an external database and dynamically adjust prices.

3. L$ will detach from the US dollar

This one is a bit out on a limb. It greatly depends on the state of US economy during the 2008 and perceived main market for Linden Lab, as the possible attachment to the Euro would mean rising costs of Second Life for the American customers. However, if the US economy tanks, but the European and Asian don't, it would make sense to shift primary focus to more healthy markets and to guarantee an influx of a more stable currency.

4. There will be no big virtual worlds revolution.

Another risky prediction. I think that improvements of software alone cannot be revolutionary enough to turn the large part of society to virtual worlds (see prediction 1). The revolution, when it comes, will be based on hardware breakthroughs. Bring on the cyber jacks!

5. The hype will become and remain mostly negative

The people at Gartner are known for some weird predictions, but I think they're on the money with the hype curve. It's important to understand that the hype curve describes the behavior of mainstream media and says nothing about technologies as such.

What does that mean for virtual worlds? Well, from a personal standpoint - I remember the Eternal September and have seen it arrive in a variety of media, so I say Hooray! I understand the need for Linden Lab and virtual merchants to expand the user base as much as possible, but I for one will be glad to meet fewer, but more interesting people.

From a global Second life standpoint, the year 2008 will be a year of proving ourself and our virtual world against expectations. The grid will crash; the media will glee in describing our alternative lifestyles to the close-minded masses; money influxes from big companies entering SL will drop; and respected SL businesses will close. But, despite (or even because) of all this, we will not only prevail, but become stronger - with better communities, better content, and more knowledge and skills. When the hype cycle turns and the shift into virtual worlds begins for real, we will be there and ready to lead the transformation.

Wearing fancy avatars with wings or cute furry ones, of course!